Real Estate Wire Weekly: CBRE predicts AI will cut U.S. office vacancy from 18.3% to 14.5% by 2031
Issue of 14 September 2026
What happened last week.
- Commercial CBRE predicts AI will cut U.S. office vacancy from 18.3% to 14.5% by 2031
A new CBRE analysis pushes back on the prevailing view that AI will hollow out office demand, projecting instead that only 5% of U.S. office jobs face serious disruption. The firm forecasts the national office vacancy rate falling nearly four points over five years, driven partly by AI-sector hiring. The argument rests on a historical pattern: past technology waves created more office jobs than they destroyed.
- Mortgage Mortgage rates breach 7% as Iran conflict drives 10-year yield toward 5%
Rates hit 7.12% last week, the first time above 7% all year, as the Iran conflict pushes bond yields higher and overwhelms the spread compression that had kept borrowing costs in check. HousingWire reports pending sales, purchase applications and inventory are all entering a stretch of tougher year-over-year comparisons. A Fed rate hike is already priced in, but the conflict, now in its sixth month, is the bigger variable.
- Commercial Mall values up 13% in a year, leading all commercial property sectors
Enclosed retail has posted the strongest valuation gains in commercial real estate over the past year, according to Green Street data cited by Propmodo. Simon Property Group shares have broken a nine-year record high, a bankrupt-era survivor is acquiring again, and a European giant that tried to exit the U.S. is now writing nine-figure checks to stay. The recovery is broad enough to include middle-market malls, not just trophy assets.
- Mortgage 30-year mortgage rate tops 7% as Fed rate hike looks near-certain
Average 30-year mortgage rates crossed 7% for the first time in 16 months on September 10, with the daily rate hitting 7.17% as of this week, according to Real Estate News. A Fed rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting is now priced at 92.7% odds, but analysts say mortgage rates may move more on investor sentiment than on the Fed's actual decision. Adjustable-rate mortgages are gaining traction as buyers look for ways to transact in a high-rate environment.
- Proptech CoStar names Felix Kusch president of Homes.com after two-year vacancy
CoStar Group has appointed European portal veteran Felix Kusch as president of Homes.com, filling a leadership gap that opened when David Mele departed in May 2024. The hire lands as Homes.com posts its first profitable residential quarter, with Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $12 million and revenue up 66% year over year to $28.5 million. Both Real Estate News and HousingWire covered the announcement Monday.
- Commercial Bay Area Multifamily Hits 97.6% Occupancy as AI Demand and Supply Freeze Drive Investor Rush
San Francisco and San Jose are posting the tightest apartment vacancy rates in the country, with effective rents up as much as 10.6% year-over-year, according to Bisnow. A near-total absence of new supply and an AI-sector hiring surge are pulling in pension funds, family offices and institutional capital alike. Deal volume in San Francisco rose to $347M in Q2 2026, up from $285M in the same quarter a year earlier.
- Mortgage Pennymac and UWM push early conforming limit above $845K set by rivals
Pennymac is accepting loans up to $850,000 and UWM up to $847,440 under early conforming limits, topping the $845,000 threshold set last week by Rocket, CrossCountry and Rate. The moves let borrowers avoid jumbo pricing and qualification standards months before the FHFA's official January 2027 limit takes effect. Rate is holding at $845,000 and explaining why, while Rocket and CrossCountry have not said whether they will follow the higher numbers.
- Mortgage Zillow: Renters save $12,792 a year over buyers as cost gap widens
The monthly cost of buying a home now runs $1,066 more than renting, according to a Zillow report covered by Scotsman Guide, and that gap has been growing. In the priciest coastal markets the difference is staggering; even in the most affordable large metros, renters still come out thousands of dollars ahead annually. For mortgage professionals, the numbers put a sharper edge on an already difficult origination environment.
- Commercial Bugatti to Brand 60-Story Brickell Tower in First U.S. Residential Play
Prosper Group and Versluys Group have secured Bugatti's nameplate for a 183-unit condominium tower at 66 Southwest 6th Street in Miami's Brickell neighborhood, according to Propmodo. The $650 million project, on a site acquired for $50 million, would be the French automaker's first U.S. residential development. It adds a sixth luxury auto brand to Miami-Dade's condo market, joining Bentley, Aston Martin, Porsche, Mercedes-Benz and Pagani.
- Proptech Building data stays locked out of ERP systems, costing commercial real estate its seat at the table
Office buildings throw off enormous amounts of operating data, but almost none of it reaches the accounting systems where commercial real estate budgets are set. Tying each building's maintenance, energy, space and lease data to the general ledger would let a company see what every property actually costs, compare buildings across a portfolio and report it the way public-company lease rules already require.
- Residential Hagens Berman eyes class action over MRED-Compass private listing deal
The law firm behind several major commissions cases is now recruiting Chicagoland homebuyers who purchased after April 24, alleging an MRED-Compass monopoly caused them to overpay. The move adds a new front to already-crowded real estate litigation, while fee disputes and fresh objections continue to complicate the Tuccori and Gibson settlements. Real Estate News reported all three developments this week.
- Residential Woolworth Building's Highest Two-Bedroom Lists at $5.79M in Tribeca
A 2,548-square-foot condominium on the 41st floor of the Woolworth Building has returned to market at $5.79 million, according to Realtor.com. The unit is the highest-floor two-bedroom in the 33-residence tower and is one of the few with oversized arched windows. For buyers tracking Manhattan's ultra-luxury condo supply, this is one of the more distinctive listings to surface in the landmark building.